WWU084 - Hurricane Isaias
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Good evening Weenies. I haven't made a report since May. WWU084 Hey, that's a hurricane. First, I'd like to give a warm welcome to our new weenies! Next, say hello to Isaias. Pronounced "ee-sah-EE-ahs" For the new Weenies, buckle in. I write these as I furiously scramble through data and I can't help but get excited. Also, new and old Weenies, always feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions on what I throw onto these reports. And with that, WE'RE OFF! This is the forecast cone for our angry friend Isaias, the graphic also includes the current watches and warnings associated with him.  Landfall is predicted to occur late Friday night, and he will likely stay a Category 2 by landfall with maximum winds of 100mph. Here are the Storm Prediction Center's Graphics: So obviously, it's a hurricane. But what does that actually mean for us? The answer is a potential threat for severe weather. All the usual forms. High winds, flooding, and a tornado can't be ruled out. As you can see, as of right now, the threat is further toward our east. I've also watched it bumble back and forth all over the state all day. So there's that. I think it's still worth watching.  So all of this so far has been forecast data. What does he actually look like? Big. He looks big. Here is the GOES Satellite imagery from about 5pm today.  Here is a little longer time frame, a little further zoomed out. The clouds you saw building today around 4ish? That was Isaias. Wild. If you click this link in the next day or so you can watch him in real time.  He also brought us an awesome sunset tonight, hopefully that's all he bring us. Old Weenies know I'm all about sharing my resources, so here is a website that I think does a great job of showing the hurricane details and track. Weenieings Welcome to Kaila's Playground. I don't have too much excitement with the HRRR or NAM tonight. Tropical systems are just too unpredictable this far out. Not to mention, the second they hit land they just fall apart. But I won't leave you without a Weenie Rant™ either. I'm gonna talk about tropical graphics, yay! First, the cone. Not this cone.  What does the forecast cone actually mean? It's not exclusively where the storm will be. It's not the size of the storm. It's not a watch or warning. Have a cute little graphic from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) that explains it best.  Hope this helps. It pretty much ONLY tells you the probable eye path and the intensity at that point. That's it. Don't keep digging. Our spectacular local office also has some information to share. You may have heard your phone going off today about a tropical storm watch. (And then immediately messaged me or ran into my office) Yes, we are under a tropical storm watch. That mostly means high winds for us. Keep in mind, our winds usually stay ~calm~ (an official NWS term). So SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH should get your attention. Stuff will fly around your yard. Your dog will not have fun. Tie stuff down. Bring in your cute fall wreaths. (I need to grab mine, whoops) Your porch pumpkins should be ok.  Alrighty. Let's get even worse. Weenieings, Part II Let's get HAMMY. As many of you already know, during large-scale severe weather events, ALERT is activated to help support NWS Birmingham and their reporting efforts. With storm reports, tornados can be confirmed, warnings can be upgraded, and ultimately lives can be saved. ALERT operates under the callsign K4NWS, and we do not run the weather nets. For information, we depend on local radio clubs to run their own weather nets that we listen in on. Here's an example of how that could sound on the air using K4CHL (Chelsea Alabama Amateur Radio Club) since they're SUPER useful for us. I'll also use some other call signs as examples. K4CHL begins a weather net and takes check-ins to the net General discussion takes place, probably event-related, but not necessarily. We're all friends so it can be any discussion before it gets too spicy out. Tornado warning is going to be issued for Shelby county K4NWS: K4NWS monitoring (This is how we let those on the net know that the weather service is now watching their general area and that we want reports) K4CHL's Net controller will hear the weather service tune in, and stop random discussions and give us air time. K4CHL: Hey K4NWS, what's going on? K4NWS: You're about to be/were just issued a warning, and we want reports of damage, funnel clouds, hail, tornadoes, etc. Please give us your exact location and as much detail as possible KR4BZF: I have large, golf ball sized hail coming down at my house in Trussville and I see a funnel cloud rotating K4NWS: Ok, thank you for the report, now get to the lowest level, most interior room of your house. Does anyone else have any reports? That is pretty much how it works on the radio. We then take that report to the forecasters who do what they wish with it. In this example, they may confirm the tornado report, and add confirmed hail reports. This is when you start to hear James and Wes talking about 'spotter reports'. After the storm passes, K4NWS steps back, and we turn back to our personal call signs. This is when we have the opportunity to be helpful in a new way. When phone lines are overwhelmed or gone entirely, ham still runs. We take messages from anyone that needs to get a message out, and help track down whatever needs to be tracked. Whether that's a lost family member or someone trying to contact a family member. This is some of the most valuable work we do as hams. Often the communication is local for something like a tornado. I need to reach my family member on the other side of town. This is done using VHF. I promise I'm headed somewhere with all of this. They also have a hurricane net. This uses HF, which is primarily used for long distance communication. Why? Damage from a hurricane can take out an entire island in the gulf, and the next closest city may also have sustained major damage. We need to be able to talk FAR. The Hurricane Watch Net will be operating starting at 1230 UTC tomorrow and running until it is no longer needed. That's 7:30am for us. For the extra nerdy ones on here, they will be running a 20m and 40m net since solar conditions have been poor on 20m lately. That will be 14.325 MHz USB and 7.268 MHz LSB Even if you don't check in, it's really something amazing to listen to. (I'll be set up in the parking lot at work for a little while in the morning if you want to see this nerdyness in action) It feels good to be back weenies. I may or may not release another update. Depends how much Isaias decides to wiggle around. |
Be safe and stay Weather Weenie Aware KR4BZF I have my resources on a page here - I'm working on adding all of them. The most important ones are already on there - check them out! During the event make sure you keep tabs on what is going on with your favorite local weatherman.
Whether that's James or Wes. I don't care. Stay safe out there. I hope you have enjoyed today's Weather Weenie Update. Stay Weather Weenie Aware. Kaila - Weather Weenie - KR4BZF |
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