WWU081 - Do I Need All Of This Bread And Milk? (1/24-1/25)

Good evening Weenies.

I made a severe weather post exactly 2 weeks ago tomorrow.

We have a chance for some frosty times this weekend.

Welcome to winter in the Southeast.

WWU081

We will get some amount of ice.

Maybe.

Welcome to my New Weenies. It's good to have you.

New and Old Weenies, you can interact with these posts or email me any time.

To all Weenies, I also have a poll at the end of this post.

I would love your feedback!

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Weenies, I've been asked so many times when I will release a report for this event.

Mind you, I usually wait until 48ish hours out.

I want to make sure the event will be real before I alert everyone.

This is right on the edge of my comfort zone. Here is the most recent graphic from NWS Birmingham. What you have heard is correct.

Overall ice risk is concentrating further north.

Let's look at the predicted radar:

I have two gifs for you guys.

Remember the last report? My tangent on long range and short range models?

Watch me go on my tangent about that at the end of this post

Yeah.

We're gonna use both since I don't have Sunday night on the short range models yet.

First is the Euro, which, if you're a little nerdy, you've heard the meteorologists talk about this model a lot lately. This is a long range model that extends through the full event.

Not really showing a winter wonderland. But, also not showing my dog and I sliding down the steps of the back porch. Just cold nasty rain.

What about the short range?

Ooooo look how crisp those graphics are.

Here is the NAM 3km: (Remember what that 3km means?) I promise I'm showing you as far as the model can run. A few notes on that.

I would call it maybe 16% more optimistic that we at least have freezing rain.

Which is why our risk of ice isn't zero.

If this stuff hits at just the right temperature, check my Instagram to watch the Ring camera footage of my dog and I sliding off the back porch.

All jokes aside, it could still become a fairly dangerous situation. Especially for driving. Most roads will be fine, but overpasses and bridges could easily become very icy.

So current ice risk?

Not much for us.

Quick return to math class.

This shows that Birmingham has a 10% chance of more than 0.13" of ice.

Very little. However, even a little in the wrong spots can cause some issues.

0.5" of ice can take down power lines. It's heavy stuff.

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WEENIEINGS

Lets talk about the atmosphere's nose.

If you're a SPOC employee, you've already seen this.

(Make sure notifications are 'On' for my Weather Weenies Teams group if you didn't see it!)

This is one of my favorite graphics for explaining the phenomenon we call snow.

Also known as 'Snow Noses'.

Basically, as you go further up in the atmosphere, how does the temperature change?

Those changes determine your precipitation type.

What this graphic doesn't show is rain, which is a strong possibility for us this weekend.

This helps me explain that, no, James Spann does not hate snow.

The Southeast just hates making snow.

Our proximity to the Gulf makes snow nearly impossible to make.

There is always warm air available that is trying it's best to push into the continental US (CONUS).

If we actually get snow, a lot has to happen.

I love playing in snow just as much as everyone else, but the chance just isn't there this time.

In the same exact way severe weather needs everything to line up just right, so does snow.

Our cold air is projected to arrive towards the tail end of the front, and we simply will not be cold enough when the precipitation is falling.

By the way, it's gonna be REALLY cold.

Sunday and Monday will be within record-breaking temperatures, so make sure your pets, children, and elderly family members are warm and indoors.

I may or may not send an update, I don't anticipate any large swings in this forecast.

Keep an eye on your plans for the weekend, and maybe bring an extra blanket, pair of underwear, and can of soup in your car.

Here is something I've thrown around a little.

I will NOT stop sending these emails out. But should I add some Socials?

Should I make a Weather Weenie social media page?

• Yes - Instagram
• Yes - Facebook
• Yes - Both
• No - This is plenty.

You can vote for more than one answer.

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Be safe and stay Weather Weenie Aware

KR4BZF

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I have my resources on a page here - I'm working on adding all of them. The most important ones are already on there - check them out!

During the event make sure you keep tabs on what is going on with your favorite local weatherman.

Whether that's James or Wes. I don't care.

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I hope you have enjoyed today's weather weenie update.

Stay Weather Weenie Aware.

Kaila - Weather Weenie - KR4BZF