WWU083 - Welcome to Spring 2026

Weather Weenie
May 5
3 min read

Good evening Weenies.

We have some severe weather on the way.

I've officially got the magnets on Big Orange and everything.

WWU083

We just skipped April apparently.

Weenies, I don't know what happened during April. Well, I do. Nothing.

At least for us. It sure was active West though.

But happy Cinco de Mayo!

In less festive news, we may get tornadoes tomorrow.

We are currently under a level (3/5) risk for tomorrow. This risk is tornado driven.

Here are the Storm Prediction Center's Graphics:

First is the categorical, but just not zoomed in on our area. This will give you a better view of the magnitude of the event. Overall a large area, but the enhanced area is pretty small. How specific of them.

And the tornado outlook.

I've done some research (shocker) and I learned more about the new significant designators. More on that in the Weenieings, Part II.

For now, what you need to know is that STRONG tornadoes are possible in addition to a 10% chance overall of any tornadoes.

Reminder - its usually 0%. 10% is pretty high.

(And the last tornado in Trussville happened in a 0%)

#RespectTheGreen

Weenieings

Welcome to Kaila's Playground. It's been a while, Weenies.

Let's jump right in. HRRR, Significant Tornado Parameter, as of 1pm today (18:00z)

HRRR is being quite friendly for us. The biggest difference in models for this system is timing and who ends up getting it.

So how about the NAM 3km?

Hmm. That's us now.

Generally, there is more agreement in the NAM across other models for this, therefore the enhanced got plopped onto us.

Wanna get real nerdy?

Here's where the significant tornado idea is coming from tomorrow.

It's been a little while since I've shown this splendid creation.

This shows CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and Hodographs (wind speed and direction with atmospheric height).

In less Weenie terms, how much do storms want to form, and how much do they want to spin?

In this case, a lot. For both.

The background colors are easier to understand. As with most of these, the more color, the worse it is. That is the CAPE. Storms want to form.

Now the worms.

Watch the pink part of the Birmingham worm. See how its fairly flat, almost nonexistent, then very curved, then flat again? Yeah that means that you'll feel wind one direction and see clouds going another. That is how much storms want to spin, wind shear.

Weenieings, Part II

I promised I'd go into the new significant designators.

I wouldn't let you Weenies down.

I reached out to the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at NWS BMX, my dear friend John De Block.

I continue to baffle the poor man with my questions, and he passed this along to me.

BEHOLD.

Summary: We are now allowed to say we have a 2% chance of tornadoes, and those tornadoes may be significant. Also, CIG1 generally means reasonibly up to EF2 intensity. CIG2 up to EF3, CIG3 is April 27th territory.

In fact, that's the example they used later in the presentation. Ah, I'll include it too.

There you go, Weenies. Keep an eye on the weather tomorrow. I probably won't have time to do another full update, so make sure you know where you'll be after 6pm.