WWU079 - Severe Weather Tuesday (11/25)

Weather Weenie
Nov 24, 2025
2 min read

Good evening Weenies.

Remember how I've said that severe weather season is November-May? We may have some severe weather tomorrow.

WWU079

Welcome to the Fall Tornado Season

Weenies, I've been wanting to make a report for a little while now. Since tomorrow has quite suddenly gotten so spicy, I figured it was time to me to emerge from hibernation. Too bad it's happening just a little too late to say 'Pumpkin Spiced Supercells" :( Here is the most updated graphic from NWS Birmingham. If there is anything to celebrate here, at least this event is during the day! Hurray!

Let's look at the Storm Prediction Center: First I like to take a quick peak at the categorical outlook. Which very much so looks like a danger avocado to me. But then again, all avocados are dangerous to me

Aaaand how about the tornado outlook? That's a tornado-driven 2/5 risk for tomorrow, folks.

An important note for tomorrow you may have noticed - my first graphic says 'Round 2'. Yes, there will be 2 rounds of severe weather tomorrow. No, the first round will not be our problem.

Let's Break it Down

I've been watching this one for a few days now, and it was originally just supposed to bonk Texas and Louisiana, and it did! They got some pretty impressive storms today. As of the last 48 hours, however, we have been included. First we were added to a wind and hail threat, because timing of all of the ingredients was a little off. This afternoon the picture of tomorrow was much clearer, and it looks like things may line up just fine. Let's look at the HRRR and NAM 3km. My favorites. First up, the HRRR.

That's pretty juicy. As always, the juicier and cloudier we are sooner, the better. Let the big time rainers use up all of the energy. The NAM is a bit less optimistic.

The NAM says "Oops, too bad. All sunshine and storms."

So what will tomorrow look like? Probably something between the two models.

How about the supercell threat?

WEENIEINGS

I don't really want to dig into the significant tornado parameter too much tonight, the supercell composite really tells the story.

Yup. There it goes. We certainly have enough of all the ingredients to make some storms.

Final note: In the words of the wonderful Staind, "It's been a while". So make sure you review your weather safety plans. (Hey SPOC, that means the bathrooms in most cases) For everyone, remember your most interior room with no windows. It just also probably happens to be a bathroom.